War is usually not in interest of the people: it serves only the interests of the ruling elite

Autocratic countries are more likely to go to war because they are less likely to care about the interests of the people, then democracies. But another theory is that democracies and autocracies are politically more stable, than the countries that are in between. Well now USA is in between as an autocratic democracy.

But countries governed by the people are more likely to compromise and negotiate a peaceful solution. But the other side need also be governed by the people, to reach a peaceful settlement. But all I mentioned are just theories which I read about in books. And the two theories contradict each other.

So what are the chances of an international war? What are the chances of a global war? According to theory, since China and Russia are autocratic, they 1. Should be stable 2. More likely to go to war. And USA is possibly likely to go to war as an autocratic democracy.

It has been explained that Canada and Australia were peacefully able to leave the British Empire, while USA fought for its independence. Why could they not compromise and negotiate a peaceful agreement? Maybe my own theory, both sides thought they could win. They both wanted land and wealth. The US ruling elite, and the British ruling elite.

So there is also a principal agent problem. Where the principal are the people, and the agents are the ruling elite. In case of the American revolution the ruling elite wanted land and wealth, and maybe power, and sold it to the people as independence. Of course the official reason was also taxation without representation. The agents don't serve the interests of the people.

Why does Pakistan keep going to war against India? A way for the military to justify itself and hold on to power? Why does China threaten Taiwan? Is it really going to benefit the people, to risk world war and international isolation, for a little bit of land and wealth?

The true reasons for war are not usually discussed openly. It is a conspiracy of the ruling elite. Was the American second Iraq war justified? How does Russia sell its invasion of Ukraine to the people? Everyone has secrets, or 'open' secrets, and they conspire with others to keep it out of the public mind.

Reference: Why we fight / Christopher Blattman