US intelligence reports that Israel is planning to strike Iran within the first six months of 2025.

Washington Post — Israel is likely to attempt a strike on Iran’s nuclear program in the coming months in a preemptive attack that would set back Tehran’s program by weeks or perhaps months but escalate tensions across the Middle East and renew the prospect of a wider regional conflagration, according to U.S. intelligence.

The warnings about a potential Israeli strike are included in multiple intelligence reports spanning the end of the Biden administration and the beginning of the Trump administration, none more comprehensive than an early January report produced by the intelligence directorate of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Defense Intelligence Agency.

The report warned that Israel is likely to attempt a strike on Iran’s Fordow and Natanz nuclear facilities in the first six months of 2025. Current and former U.S. officials familiar with the intelligence told The Washington Post that the finding derives from an analysis of Israel’s planning following its bombing of Iran in late October, which degraded its air defenses and left Tehran exposed to a follow-on assault. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss highly classified intelligence.

The Israeli government, CIA, Defense Intelligence Agency and Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment. A spokesman for the White House National Security Council, Brian Hughes, said President Donald Trump “has made it clear: He will not permit Iran to get a nuclear weapon.”

“While he prefers negotiating a resolution to American’s long-standing issues with the Iranian regime peacefully, he will not wait indefinitely if Iran isn’t willing to deal, and soon,” Hughes told The Post.

The military intelligence report spelled out two potential strike options, each involving the United States providing support in the form of aerial refueling as well as intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, said those familiar with the document. Such reliance on the United States in any strike on Iran — even one that yields only modest results — underscores Washington’s leverage over Israel’s path forward.

A distance attack, known as a standoff strike, would see Israeli aircraft firing air-launched ballistic missiles, or ALBMs, outside of Iranian airspace, the intelligence report said. A more risky stand-in attack would see Israeli jets enter Iranian airspace, flying near the nuclear sites and dropping BLU-109s, a type of bunker buster. The Trump administration approved the sale of guidance kits for those bunker busters last week and made a notification to Congress that it had done so.

The U.S. assessment found that an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities would at best set back its activities by months, and potentially only by weeks, said current and former officials. Any attack also would incentivize Iran to pursue weapons-grade enrichment of uranium, the officials said, a long-standing red line for the United States and Israel.

The six-month time frame for a likely operation and details on the two potential strike scenarios have not been previously reported. The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that Israel is considering a strike on Iran this year.

President Trump: "You cannot allow [Iran] to have a nuclear weapon but there's two ways to stopping them: with bombs or a written piece of paper... I think Iran would love to make a deal and I would love to make a deal with them without bombing them."

The Times Of Israel — On Tuesday, Iran submitted a letter to the UN Security Council to register its protest against what it called Trump’s “deeply alarming and irresponsible remarks.”

“These reckless and inflammatory statements flagrantly violate international law and the UN Charter, particularly Article 2(4), which prohibits threats or use of force against sovereign states,” said Iran’s head of mission Saeed Iravani in the letter published by the official IRNA news agency.

He further warned that “any act of aggression will have severe consequences, for which the United States will bear full responsibility.”

Trump’s remarks came amid renewed tensions after he reinstated his “maximum pressure” policy against Iran over concerns the country was seeking to develop nuclear weapons.

The Times Of Israel — The head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog has said that it would take Iran just weeks to have enough enriched uranium to make a nuclear bomb, and that Tehran’s activity, alongside the limited access it grants to its facilities, “raises eyebrows.”

But International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Mariano Grossi told Deutsche Welle in a report published Monday that attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities should be a “no-go.”

The Times Of Israel — Iran will respond immediately and decisively if its nuclear sites are attacked which would lead to an “all-out war in the region,” Tehran’s foreign minister told Al Jazeera TV in an interview aired on Friday.

Israel and the US launching a military attack on Iranian nuclear facilities would be “one of the biggest historical mistakes the US could make,” Abbas Araghchi said through a translator.