The Canada/Greenland Drama is really about climate change and shipping lanes over the next 15-20 years.

I’ve been thinking about the pattern behind Trump’s repeated mentions of annexing Greenland, and even making Canada the 51st state. While it’s often dismissed as political theater or bluster, there may be a deeper, long-term strategic angle at play—especially when viewed through the lens of Arctic geopolitics and emerging shipping routes.

As polar ice continues to recede (maybe also why the we aren’t worried about global warming in this administration), the Arctic is opening up in ways that would have seemed impossible just a few decades ago. One of the most significant developments is the viability of the Northwest Passage—a sea route that would allow ships to travel from the Pacific to the Atlantic by navigating along the northern coasts of Alaska, Canada, and Greenland. This route could reduce transit times between Asia and Europe dramatically, cutting thousands of miles off traditional routes through the Suez or Panama canals.

Right now, Russia is aggressively investing in its own Arctic infrastructure. China is calling itself a “near-Arctic state” and building influence in the region through the Polar Silk Road. Meanwhile, the U.S. has a foothold in Alaska and a strategic presence in Greenland through military installations, but otherwise lags in Arctic infrastructure and control.

If the United States were to somehow gain territorial control over Greenland and parts of Canada’s Arctic Archipelago, it would effectively own the entire northern shipping corridor—from the Bering Strait to the North Atlantic. This would mean more than just trade advantages. It would grant the U.S. the power to regulate or tax shipping traffic, expand military reach, and push back against Russian and Chinese ambitions in the region.

I’m not arguing that annexation is politically feasible or morally justified. But in terms of strategic foresight, it does explain why Greenland and northern Canada suddenly matter so much in certain political conversations. We may be entering a new era where Arctic territory becomes the center of global power competition.

Within the next 15 to 20 years, I believe we’ll see a major geopolitical struggle unfold in the Arctic—one driven not by ideology or nationalism, but by control over shipping lanes, natural resources, and access to a warming ocean.

Would be interested to hear others’ thoughts on this. Are we underestimating how important the Arctic will be in the next phase of global power shifts